There was a time in the 1980s when Communist regimes fell like bowling pins. They fell, simply because their people decided to vote with their feet. Instead of challenging the regimes head-on, they scrambled to cross into Western countries that were freer. This led to a deluge in immigration, which invariably, emptied out the communist regimes. East Germany and Romania fought in vain to stem the human tide. The dictators had their just desserts. They were executed and bodies subject to mutilation.
Many observers predicted the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party following the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989 too, and again following the serial collapse of communist regimes behind the Iron Curtain. Their predictions, however, never proved true. Despite minor setbacks, China has experienced explosive economic growth and relative political stability ever since 1989.
In “The Dictator’s Dilemma”, eminent China scholar Bruce Dickson provides a comprehensive explanation for the regime’s continued survival and prosperity. Dickson contends that the popular media narrative of the party’s impending implosion ignores some basic facts. The regime’s policies may generate resentment and protest, but the CCP still enjoys a surprisingly high level of popular support.
Nor is the party cut off from the people it governs. It consults with a wide range of specialists, stakeholders, and members of the general public in a selective yet extensive manner. Further, it tolerates and even encourages a growing and diverse civil society, even while restricting access to it. Today, the majority of Chinese people see the regime as increasingly democratic even though it does not allow political competition and its leaders are not accountable to the electorate. In short, while the Chinese people may prefer change, they prefer that it occurs within the existing political framework.
In reaching this conclusion, Dickson draws upon original public opinion surveys, interviews, and published materials to explain why there is so much popular support for the regime. One thing is certain, though, China has often survived on dynastic history. President Xi Jing Ping is the princeling of the former Communist stalwarts. To what degree is this phenomenon a sustainable one? Communist Parties tend to pass their powers from father to sons.
While this is not clearly the case in China, as neither Mao Tse Tung nor Deng Xiao Ping left the reins of power in the hands of their sons, President Xi Jin Ping has proven to be an exception. Will this exception become the future rule? No one knows. But at least some patterns can now be discerned.
At any rate, China’s basic stability is a familiar story to China specialists, but not to those whose knowledge of contemporary China is limited to the popular media. The popular media tends to get China based on news that glow in the open surface; often ignoring the dynamics in the geological fault lines that lie beneath the party.
“The Dictator’s Dilemma”, an engaging synthesis of how the CCP rules and its future prospects, will enlighten both audiences, and will be essential for anyone interested in understanding China’s increasing importance in world politics. But, like all books on China, a mere tract alone is not enough to explain the complexities of such a behemoth.